Daily Steel Market: Billet Rises by 10, Yet Trading Remains Sluggish; Steel Prices Likely to Fluctuate with a Bearish Bias

I. Summary of Spot and Futures Steel Prices

On June 29, domestic steel market prices edged down. In Tangshan, the ex-works price of Qian’an ordinary billet rose by RMB 10 to RMB 2,970/ton. While black commodity futures posted broad-based gains, merchants still lowered spot prices slightly to boost shipments, with overall market transactions remaining lackluster.

II. Daily Spot Prices by Product

Rebar: On June 29, the average price of 20mm Grade III seismic rebar across 31 major cities was RMB 3,305/ton, down RMB 6/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, early-session rebar futures fluctuated at low levels, and most cities kept spot offers steady, with some showing slight concessions. In terms of transactions, end-user procurement remained average, and market trading sentiment saw no notable improvement. In the afternoon, rebar futures recovered from their lows, and the pick-up in the futures market mildly boosted spot market sentiment, leading to modestly better transactions, though downstream buyers remained largely cautious and on the sidelines. In the short term: first, while rebar futures have rebounded from lows, the upside momentum remains limited, and the market lacks sustained positive catalysts, keeping spot prices under pressure; second, tight liquidity toward month-end has prompted some traders to cut prices to ease funding strains, dragging on overall prices. Bearish sentiment persists, and traders are operating cautiously, with low willingness to restock. In the near term, spot fundamentals remain weak on both supply and demand sides, while costs are diverging—coke prices are relatively strong, providing some bottom-line support to finished steel prices. Rebar prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile trajectory on June 30.

Hot-Rolled Coil: On June 29, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil across 24 major cities was RMB 3,342/ton, down RMB 3/ton from the previous session. On the supply side, sustained increases in raw material prices have gradually compressed overall margins, though most integrated mills still retain decent profits and have no maintenance plans for now. On the demand side, the off-season effect persists, compounded by rainy weather, keeping market demand at a moderate level and overall transaction pace average. Hot-rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly on June 30.

Cold-Rolled Coil: On June 29, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil across 24 major cities was RMB 3,826/ton, down RMB 3/ton from the prior day. The market is in the demand off-season, with prices down slightly and transaction volumes mostly falling short of expectations. Merchant inventories rose marginally, and sentiment is weighed down by both destocking pressure and inventory build-up, creating significant market strain. Additionally, with month-end approaching, funding pressure is mounting, prompting many traders to cut prices to free up cash. Supply-demand imbalances continue to accumulate. On balance, cold-rolled coil prices are likely to move sideways on June 30.

Medium Plate: On June 29, the average price of 20mm plain plate across 24 major cities was RMB 3,514/ton, down RMB 4/ton from the previous day. Spot prices drifted lower overall, with cautious market sentiment, poor demand, and generally weak transactions. On the resource front, production of plain medium plates remains relatively limited, but locked-in prices and new supply from various regions have increased notably, with most mills shifting toward higher value-added varieties. In East China, shipments proceeded normally, but a mismatch in resource allocation emerged—low-alloy supplies declined relatively, while plain plate arrivals decreased slightly. Overall, inbound resources remain ample. Given subdued demand, national medium plate prices are expected to hold steady on June 30.

III. Steel Price Forecast

Starting June 29, a new round of heavy rainfall is hitting the south, while high temperatures are expanding across many northern regions. Under such hot and rainy weather conditions, steel demand is expected to remain lackluster. Recently, the coal and coke markets have stayed firm, with costs fluctuating at high levels; steel mill profitability has declined, and steel output may decrease slightly. In the short term, the steel market faces weakness on both supply and demand fronts, with inventories continuing to accumulate. Given that costs still offer some support, steel prices are likely to fluctuate narrowly on the downside.