Forecast for Chinese seamless steel pipe prices in June

(1) Positive Factors

1. Cost support: With billet prices stabilising, raw material costs are providing some support for seamless pipe prices.
2. Tightening supply: As some pipe mills are scheduled for maintenance in June, supply is likely to decline to some extent.
3. Export orders: Export orders remain high for some companies, alleviating pressure on domestic supply.

(2) Negative Factors

1. Off-peak season: June marks the start of the traditional off-peak season, and downstream demand is likely to continue to decline.
2. Liquidity pressures: Liquidity conditions are tight in the middle of the year, and traders are reluctant to stock up.
3. Macroeconomic uncertainty: The strength of the economic recovery remains to be seen, and market confidence is low.
4. Intensifying competition: Inventory pressures at pipe mills are becoming apparent, and competition on the supply side is fierce.

(3) Price Forecast

In summary, the national seamless steel pipe market is expected to remain volatile but generally firm in June. It is highly likely that prices will rise by 50–100 yuan per tonne compared with the end of May.