In 2024, the export volume of seamless steel pipes in China was 5.7211 million tons,…
Summary of spot and futures prices of steel
On May 12th, most domestic steel markets rose. In Qian ‘an, Tangshan, the factory price of common square billets was raised by 60 yuan per ton including tax, reaching 2,970 yuan per ton. The China-Us talks have made substantive progress. The price of rebar futures has risen rapidly, the trading atmosphere is strong, and the trading volume has increased significantly.
On May 12th, the closing price of the main contract of rebar futures was 3,082, up 1.52%. The DIF broke through the DEA upward, and the RSI three-line indicator was between 41 and 50, approaching the middle track of the Bollinger Bands.
On May 12th, two domestic steel mills raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20 to 40 yuan per ton, while two others lowered it by 20 to 40 yuan per ton. In addition, the ex-factory prices of Shagang, Yonggang and Zhongtian remained stable in mid-May.
Daily price trends of special steel products
On May 12th, the average price of 20mm grade 3 earthquake-resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,317 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. At present, the fundamental contradictions in the market are not prominent. Meanwhile, with the boost of macro favorable policies, market confidence has improved, and the sentiment side will further drive up prices. Overall, it is expected that the domestic construction steel prices will continue to strengthen on the 13th.
Hot-rolled coil: On May 12th, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,330 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trade conflict has eased somewhat. Driven by market sentiment, the futures price of hot-rolled coil opened and continued to rise. From the perspective of demand, demand weakened seasonally in May, and the overall digestion of market resources was rather mediocre. From the supply side, steel mills are still making profits at present and production remains resilient. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils may fluctuate and become stronger on the 13th.
Cold-rolled coil: On May 12th, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3,860 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. Market transactions have seen an increase in volume, inventories are being reduced, and the price gap between cold and hot products continues to narrow. It is expected that the price of cold-rolled steel will rise slightly on the 13th.
On May 12th, the average price of 20mm common plates in 24 major cities across the country was 3,565 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. It is understood that the inventory of low alloy resources in East China is relatively low and the recent transactions have been acceptable, so the prices have risen significantly. On the 12th, the overall market demand was good. The common boards in the northern Wu ‘an and other markets are still in short supply. The sales are better than last Friday, but the market is still in a wait-and-see mood, and the upward momentum of prices lacks. At present, orders from steel mills are still acceptable. The influence of favorable macro policies and inventory costs have formed a bottom support for prices. It is expected that the price of medium plates will still rise narrowly in the short term.
Daily price trends of raw materials and fuels
Iron ore: On May 12th, the price of imported iron ore at Shandong ports was stronger than that of the previous working day, with a cumulative increase of 15 to 20. The enthusiasm of traders in the region to offer quotations is acceptable, but there are relatively few transactions so far. In terms of buying, steel mills in the region maintained low inventory operations, and overall inquiries were weak. At present, the mainstream range of PB powder is 768-773. The mainstream of Super Special fans is around 635. The mainstream of the PB block is between 910 and 915.
Scrap steel: On May 12th, the average price of heavy scrap in 45 major cities across the country was 2,072 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. In the short term, macro news may be a temporary positive factor for steel prices and relatively negative for raw materials. However, due to the tight supply of scrap steel, its price is closely following that of finished products. Therefore, domestic scrap steel may be expected to experience a slight rebound.
Coke: On May 12th, the market price of coke remained stable for the time being. Market sentiment has changed somewhat, and the voices of price hikes and drops have increased. Currently, it is rumored that the possibility of it being implemented on Friday is relatively high. The price of raw coal has maintained a downward trend recently. Over the weekend, the prices of some coal types in Luliang and Linfen markets dropped by 40 to 50 yuan. On the 12th, the overall raw coal market continued to decline. In terms of downstream steel, on the 12th, steel prices rose somewhat due to favorable macro sentiment. However, influenced by the factor of raw material concessions, steel mills have a relatively clear willingness to lower coke prices. It is expected that coke prices will remain weak in the near future.
Steel market price forecast
The joint statement of the China-Us economic and trade talks in Geneva was released, significantly reducing the bilateral tariff levels. The US side has cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has accordingly cancelled 91% of the countermeasures tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of the 24% “reciprocal tariff”, and China has accordingly suspended the implementation of the 24% countermeasures tariff.
Boosted by positive news, the risk appetite in the capital market has increased, black futures have strengthened, and speculative demand in the steel market has somewhat recovered. In the short term, steel prices may tend to strengthen.
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