Smooth or Bad! ? There are Some Changes in China’s Foreign Trade! Foreign Trade Container Data can Explain
Recently, the Financial Times Chinese website published an article titled "China's foreign trade situation is…
First, macro news
01, the EU launched a challenge to China’s electric cars
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce answered a reporter’s question, on September 13, EU leaders officially announced that they would soon launch an anti-subsidy investigation into China’s electric vehicles. China is highly concerned and strongly dissatisfied with this. China urges the EU to proceed from the overall interests of maintaining the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain as well as the China-Eu comprehensive strategic partnership, conduct dialogue and consultation with China, create a fair, non-discriminatory and predictable market environment for the common development of the China-Eu electric vehicle industry, jointly oppose trade protectionism, and jointly commit to the global efforts to address climate change and achieve carbon neutrality.
02. The US CPI rose 3.7% in August from a year earlier
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US inflation rebounded in August, CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, the previous value of 3.2%; On a month-on-month basis, it rose 0.6 per cent, in line with expectations, from 0.2 per cent previously. Us August core CPI rose 4.3%, expected 4.3%, previous 4.7%; + 0.3% month-on-month versus 0.2% expected and previous.
03. In August, electricity consumption in the whole society increased by 3.9% year-on-year
The National Energy Administration released data on electricity consumption in August. In August, the country consumed 886.1 billion KWH of electricity, up 3.9 percent year on year. By industry, the primary industry consumed 14.2 billion KWH of electricity, up 8.6% year on year; The secondary industry consumed 545.8 billion KWH of electricity, up 7.6% year on year; The tertiary industry consumed 171.1 billion KWH of electricity, up 6.6% year on year; Household electricity consumption in urban and rural areas was 155 billion KWH, down 9.9% year on year. From January to August, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 6,082.6 billion KWH, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year.
04, small and medium-sized banks intensively follow up the reduction of fixed deposit listing interest rates
Following a number of city commercial banks in early September to follow large banks, stock banks to reduce the fixed deposit listing interest rate, and the Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of Ningbo, Bank of Xiamen and other city commercial banks have or will adjust the fixed deposit listing interest rate. From the perspective of adjustment amplitude, some banks and large banks and stock banks have the same reduction amplitude, that is, the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year fixed deposit listed interest rate reduction amplitude is 10BP, 20BP, 25BP, 25BP, and there are differences in the adjustment amplitude of some banks.
05, the National Development and Reform Commission industry Department held a special symposium on mine construction
In order to accelerate the development and construction of domestic mining projects and improve the ability to secure the supply of mineral resources, the Department of Industry of the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a symposium on the development and construction of mining projects to deeply understand the basic situation, development and construction progress and difficulties faced by key mining projects such as domestic iron ore and non-ferrous metal mines, and carefully listen to relevant policies and measures, opinions and suggestions. The next step is discussed in depth.
Second, steel trend analysis
01, building materials: yesterday the price was stable and weak
Fundamental production and demand double drop, inventory decline is obvious, according to the China Steel network information Research Institute estimates, the total thread inventory fell 30.03 million tons week on week, the overall support is better, but the demand performance is not as expected, steel price trend is still in the strong expectations and weak reality pattern, there is pressure on the test, it is expected that building materials prices are stable today.
02, hot roll: yesterday’s price shock was weak
Fundamental production and demand double drop, inventory weekly declination, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand has not worsened, but the gold nine peak season is expected, the overall data performance fell below expectations, market sentiment is affected, the cost of coking coal and iron ore support strong, macro policy expectations and costs continue to rise to promote plate prices rebound, is expected today hot roll prices mixed.
03, the middle board: yesterday’s price was stable and weak
Fundamental supply and demand double decline, inventory slightly decreased, the supply and demand structure has not significantly changed, the gold nine peak season, the market expectations are higher, but the reality table needs data less than expected, the mood is not high, the price difference between the north and the south is at a low level, the circulation is dominated by local resources, the demand is weak, the transaction just needs to be based, it is expected that the price of the board is stable today.
04, pipe: yesterday the price held a stable decline
The seamless tube as a whole is stable, the tube billet is stable, and the market is mainly driven by stable price under weak demand, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong; Welded pipe is stable, market sentiment is affected by the futures market, the bottom is supported by the cost side obviously, the demand above is obviously restricted, the market fluctuation space is narrowed, and the pipe price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range today.
Third, raw material trend analysis
01, coke: yesterday the price stable operation
Under the rising cost, most coke enterprises fall into losses, there is the possibility of production reduction, the downstream finished materials are weak operation, the terminal transaction is weak, the steel mill profits are limited, the psychological pressure on coke is not reduced, the overall mood of the industrial chain is not good, the market pessimism appears, confidence is hit, it is expected that the price of coke is temporarily stable today.
02, billet: yesterday the price was stable and weak
Finished materials weak operation, the release of terminal demand is poor, the downstream billet demand is suppressed, the cost side is strong, iron ore continues to be high shock, coke is temporarily stable, coking coal continues to rise, squeezing steel mill profits, Tangshan mainstream steel mill average loss of 22 yuan/ton, the downside is limited, is expected to be stable and weak billet prices today.
03, iron ore: yesterday’s high price volatility
Some steel enterprises under the loss of spontaneous production reduction may increase, and according to the weekly data show that this Friday, the production of large materials decreased significantly, fell back for three consecutive weeks, prone to negative feedback trading logic, in the short term, the port low inventory and downstream high-speed iron water, the bottom of the mine price support is strong, is expected today’s iron ore price shock operation.
Fourth, today’s steel price forecast
Five major materials fundamental supply declined for three consecutive weeks, hot metal continued to non-five major materials to transfer production, while demand performance is less than expected, the overall confidence of the industry chain is affected, but the cost side of the support is sufficient, steel mill profits are in the loss, the price is strong, is expected to be strong price volatility today.
The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.