With the situation in the Middle East easing, how are seamless pipe exports faring?

As of April 20, 2026, the situation in the Middle East remains in a highly volatile stalemate. With the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement set to expire on April 22 and negotiations having collapsed, Iran has resumed full control of the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel insists that the conflict is not over. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shifted their support to U.S. forces, causing the risk of regional conflict to surge sharply; As the strategic chokepoint for 30% of global seaborne crude oil and 20% of global oil supply, restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude prices to $96.86 per barrel. In the short term, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels between $90 and $100; should the conflict escalate, prices could potentially exceed $120; This has dealt a direct blow to China’s seamless pipe exports. With the Middle East serving as a core market (accounting for over 39% of total exports), disruptions to shipping routes and a 30–50% surge in logistics costs—coupled with the suspension of local oil and gas projects and a slowdown in infrastructure development—may cause seamless pipe exports to decline by 15–20% in the short term. However, the long-term, essential demand for oil and gas investment driven by high oil prices still preserves market opportunities for high-end oil casing and line pipe.