Raw Material Prices Slightly Decline; National Seamless Tube Prices May Adjust Weakly Today

[Price Review]

On November 27, the prices of seamless tubes in major cities across the country remained largely stable. The national average price for seamless tubes (108*4.5mm) was reported at 4,232 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Linyi market, the price for seamless tubes (108*4.5mm) remained temporarily stable, while in the Liaocheng market, the price for seamless tubes (108*4.5mm) also held steady.

[Raw Materials]

Tube Billets: On November 27, the ex-factory price for hot-rolled tube billets in Shandong fell by 10 yuan. For Φ50-130 steel mill direct deliveries including tax: Donghai 3,150, Gangtou Special Steel 3,230, Tiangang 3,180, and Weigang 3,190 (yuan/ton).

Billets: On November 27, the ex-factory price for ordinary square billets in Qian’an, Tangshan, including tax, was lowered by 10 yuan, reported at 2,970 (yuan/ton).

[Demand]

On November 27, the total transaction volume for 124 seamless tube trading sample companies nationwide was 13,826 tons, a daily decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. By region, transactions decreased in all areas except for the Southwest, Central, South, and Northwest regions. The Northeast region saw a significant decline of 28.7%.

[Market Conditions]

Yesterday, the futures market experienced weak volatility, and raw material prices saw a slight decline. Orders received by pipe mills were generally average, with some mills initiating rotational production maintenance and cutting ex-factory prices to stimulate orders, reflecting a cautious approach to production. In the market, recent trading activity has been subdued, and policies have remained in a vacuum period for some time. Weak demand and low market confidence persist. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to break, making market prices more prone to decline than increase. As temperatures gradually drop, outdoor construction conditions in the north may become less favorable, leading to a trend of northern materials moving south. Merchants are primarily focused on destocking. In summary, the average price of seamless pipes is expected to consolidate with a weak bias today.

This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a weekly increase of 58,000 tons, up 0.7%. Total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a weekly decrease of 322,900 tons, down 2.25%. Weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, down 0.7%. Among these, construction steel consumption decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, while plate consumption increased by 2.3%.

This week, the billet inventory in Tangshan’s major warehouses and ports under the same caliber was 1.2167 million tons, a weekly decrease of 7,800 tons.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide achieved a total profit of 5,950.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Among these, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit year-on-year.