Both Export Volume and Prices of Steel Products Declined in Q1

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14, China exported 9.135 million tons of steel products in March, an increase of 1.298 million tons from the previous month, representing a month-on-month rise of 16.6%. The cumulative steel export volume from January to March reached 24.717 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%.

In March, China imported 512,000 tons of steel products, up 143,000 tons month on month, or a 38.8% month-on-month increase. The total steel imports in the first three months stood at 1.339 million tons, down 14.1% year on year.

In terms of total volume, China’s cumulative steel exports in the first quarter fell by 9.9% year on year compared with the same period in 2025, and dropped sharply by 20.43% quarter on quarter from the fourth quarter of 2025. The figures indicate that export volume is not only lower than that of the same period last year, but has also declined markedly from the export peak at the end of last year.

In terms of prices, export value posted an even steeper decline. The total steel export value in the first quarter amounted to 17.262 billion US dollars, down 10.83% year on year and 18.02% quarter on quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2025. The larger decline in export value compared with export volume reflects mounting downward pressure on average export prices.

The decline in steel exports is mainly affected by the following factors:

Higher costs driven by export licenses and carbon tariffsThe new steel export license policy, implemented on January 1, 2026, has raised compliance costs for domestic manufacturers and prolonged shipment cycles, forcing enterprises to voluntarily give up some low-margin orders. Meanwhile, the EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) has entered the formal implementation phase, increasing export compliance costs for high-carbon-emission products and directly curbing export willingness for conventional steel products.

Trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts2026 marks a peak period for final rulings on anti-dumping cases. Countries including Brazil and Mexico have imposed heavy additional tariffs on China’s cold-rolled and galvanized steel products, closing off part of the traditional export markets. In addition, tensions in the Middle East (U.S.-Iran conflicts) have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, hindering order deliveries to the Middle East market, which accounts for approximately 15% of China’s total steel exports.

Depleted downstream demand and exchange rate fluctuations The export rush seen in the same period and at the end of last year created a high comparative base and resulted in overdrawn market demand. Furthermore, the sustained appreciation of the RMB has eroded export profits. As the price gap between domestic and overseas markets narrows, China’s export pricing advantage is under pressure, intensifying price competition.

Overall, China’s steel exports in the first quarter of 2026 were characterized by falling volume and prices, structural differentiation, and a low-start-to-rise trend. The export decline stems from combined pressures including structural weakness in global demand, accelerated local substitution in major importing markets, and rising trade protectionism. Although a seasonal rebound emerged in March, the overall export momentum has weakened significantly.

Nevertheless, the market shows structural bright spots amid the overall volume decline, with positive changes taking place in the export mix. Exports of low-end ordinary steel such as standard rebar have shrunk, while high-grade steel sheets and special high-quality steel have maintained resilient shipments. High value-added sheet products, including coated and plated steel sheets/strips, achieved month-on-month growth in February. In addition, with fewer trade barriers applying to steel billets and disrupted Iranian exports due to Middle East geopolitical tensions, Chinese steel billets have become a key alternative to fill global supply gaps, driving a notable rebound in domestic billet exports.

In terms of trade patterns, exports to the EU and South Korea declined, while the export share to Southeast Asia (Thailand, the Philippines), Central Asia and certain South American countries increased, effectively offsetting the volume drop in traditional markets.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, steel export growth will slow down under the dual pressure of stricter policy thresholds and escalating external trade barriers, accompanied by deeper product structural differentiation. Rising shipping costs caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts will suppress market transactions and weigh on China’s steel exports to the region. The steel export market is expected to continue the pattern of sluggish overall volume and volatile export prices.