Causes, Opportunities and Sustainability of China’s Steel Export Boom to Central Asia

Central Asian countries have emerged as a fast-growing market in China’s steel export trade in recent years. According to China Customs data, the bilateral merchandise trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries hit a record high of USD 106.3 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, marking the first time China has become the region’s largest trading partner. Breaking down the figures, China’s exports to Central Asia rose 11% year-on-year to USD 71.2 billion, while imports grew 14% to USD 35.1 billion. Trade structure continued to optimize with enriched non-resource product categories, including chemicals, steel products and agricultural goods.

Despite its relatively low proportion in China’s total steel exports in 2023, the Central Asian market has witnessed rapid share growth amid a regional infrastructure construction upsurge. In the first quarter of 2026, Xinjiang’s steel export value surged 70% year-on-year. Central Asia has evolved into a high-potential blue ocean market for domestic steel traders.

I。Core Drivers of the Steel Export Boom

1. Dual growth of infrastructure and industrialization drives robust steel demand

Central Asian states are undergoing large-scale infrastructure upgrading and accelerated industrialization, fueling explosive growth in steel consumption. Based on national official statistics and international institutional forecasts, Central Asia’s apparent steel consumption ranged from 11.5 million to 12.5 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5%–6.5%. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan dominate the regional market, with steel consumption of 9.5 million–10 million tons and 5.5 million–6 million tons respectively, together accounting for over two-thirds of the regional total.

In 2025, construction steel consumption in the two countries increased by 8%–10%, and section steel consumption rose by more than 10% year-on-year. Booming residential and infrastructure construction has continuously widened the local steel supply gap.

2. Improved logistics systems reduce export costs

China’s steel exports to Central Asia were previously hampered by high logistics costs and unstable transportation efficiency. In recent years, the maturing China-Europe freight train routes and cross-border highway networks have effectively eliminated logistics bottlenecks, greatly improving export accessibility and cost-effectiveness.

3. Insufficient local capacity creates structural import reliance

Sustained economic growth in Central Asia has not been matched by domestic steel production capacity. The structural shortage of local steel supply and high import dependence have created long-term market opportunities for Chinese steel products.

II. Sustainability Analysis from Supply and Demand Dimensions

1. Demand side: Infrastructure cycle remains on an upward track

Major flagship projects such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway have entered full-scale construction, ensuring stable and robust steel demand in the next three to five years. In addition, Central Asia’s generally low urbanization rates leave substantial room for growth. Ongoing urbanization will generate continuous long-term demand for residential buildings and municipal infrastructure construction.

2. Supply side: Expanding local capacity brings competitive pressure

Central Asian countries are actively upgrading and expanding their domestic steel industries to reduce import reliance. The growth of local production capacity is the core variable that will shape the long-term sustainability of China’s steel exports to the region.

III. Opportunities and Market Outlook

Comprehensive analysis indicates a positive short-term outlook for China’s steel exports to Central Asia. In the next one to two years, concentrated infrastructure investment will sustain strong market demand, supporting continuous robust growth in China’s steel exports to Central Asian markets.