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Analysis of Steel Trends

1. Building materials: Prices remained stable and fell slightly yesterday

The fundamentals continue to be weak in both supply and demand, with inventory accumulation and a clear trend. It is difficult to change the characteristics of the off-season, and steel prices are under pressure. However, the magnitude of the accumulation of threaded stocks has narrowed compared to the previous period. Coupled with the emergence of positive news, yesterday’s afternoon market price rebounded significantly, and market optimism has emerged. It is expected that building materials prices will remain stable and rise today.

2. Hot topic: Yesterday’s prices remained stable and fell slightly

The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with a slight accumulation of 14000 tons in inventory and a weekly decline of 99500 tons in production, which is quite significant and supports the price of hot coils to some extent. Macro positive factors have emerged, with black series work rising, and expectations and emotions driving up. It is expected that hot coil prices will remain stable and strong today.

3. Mid board: Prices remained stable and weak yesterday

The weekly data release shows that the supply and demand structure of the fundamentals has deteriorated, with production increasing by 26900 tons month on week, demand falling by 34500 tons, supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation of 45600 tons, indicating that demand is under pressure and the board price is under pressure. It is expected that the mid board price will remain stable and consolidate today.

4. Pipes: Prices remained stable and fell slightly yesterday

Seamless pipes remain stable, costs are temporarily supported, demand continues to decline, and short-term prices remain stable; Welded pipes have remained stable and experienced a decline, with an increase in pipe factory maintenance, providing some support for pipe prices. The willingness to adjust prices in the market is low, and the wait-and-see sentiment continues. It is expected that pipe prices will remain stable and subject to individual adjustments today.

Analysis of raw material trends

1. Coke: Prices remained stable yesterday

The fundamentals continue to be weak in both supply and demand, snowfall in the main production areas may affect resource circulation, and the release of winter storage and replenishment in steel mills is weak, affecting the replenishment of raw materials. Some coke companies still have accumulated inventory in their factories, and the upward trend of coke prices is weak. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable and weak today.

2. Steel billets: Yesterday’s prices remained stable

Finished materials are still weak, steel billet inventory is at a high level, and downstream steel mills have weak demand for billet procurement. However, the macro pricing weight has increased, and there was positive news yesterday. Market sentiment was optimistic, and trading has heated up. It is expected that steel billet prices will rise slightly today.

3. Iron ore: Yesterday’s price range fluctuated

Facing the weakening of iron ore support and poor finished product profits, there is a demand for profits from iron ore. In addition, steel traders have poor willingness to store in winter, weak demand for raw material replenishment, difficulty in digesting iron ore inventory, and pressure on ore prices. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate today.

Today’s steel price forecast

Weekly supply and demand data released, with weak supply and demand of the five major materials, production fell by 139700 tons on a weekly basis, an increase from last week, and apparent consumption fell by 149000 tons, continuing to be weak. Total inventory continued to accumulate, factory inventory was depleted, social inventory increased, and total inventory accumulated 296200 tons. There was not much change in the supply and demand structure, but there was a positive macro perspective. The stock market and commodities resonated yesterday, and optimistic sentiment emerged in the market. Expectations rose again, and the willingness to explore rising prices increased, It is expected that prices will remain stable and rise slightly today.

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