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Macro news 


It is expected that the MLF interest rate will be lowered in the first quarter

 Market expectations for a rate cut in January fell short. The maturity of MLF this month was 779 billion yuan, with an excess of 216 billion yuan, fully meeting the needs of financial institutions. The market’s expected interest rate cut is disappointed, but the follow-up can still be expected, the short-term interest rate cut expectation is disappointed, may mean that the follow-up interest rate cut is expected to strengthen, the possibility of MLF interest rate reduction in the first quarter is still large. 


December white electricity market summary

 According to the offline market monitoring data of AVC, the offline retail sales of color TV in December 2023 increased by 11.2% year on year; Refrigerators fell 11.6% year on year; Washing machines increased 30.7% year-on-year; Air conditioning grew 23.5 percent year on year.


Key statistics of steel enterprises crude steel daily output of 201.92 million tons

According to China Steel Association data show that in early January 2024, the key statistics of steel enterprises crude steel daily output of 201.92 million tons, an increase of 21.19% compared with the previous month, an increase of 4.86% compared with the same period last year; Steel stocks of 14.394,500 tons, an increase of 16.47% over the previous ten days, an increase of 2.05% over the same ten days last month.

Steel trend analysis


Building materials: Prices held steady yesterday

 Cost end bifocal weakness and iron ore high fall drag down the weak operation of the finished material, coupled with the building materials fundamentals continue to supply and demand weak, continued accumulation, macro macro interwoven, the overall steel price lack of upward drive, building materials prices are expected to be stable and weak today.


Hot roll: Yesterday prices were weak running

The macro level of interest rate cut expectations to fall, a number of data impact is bearish, the overall market sentiment is weak, some areas of hot roll low price replenishment is better, but the overall pressure, off-season characteristics appear, sales pressure under the shipment is mainly expected to be stable today hot roll prices weak.


Medium board: Yesterday’s price weak stable operation

With the adjustment of the price difference between the north and the south, the amount of north timber to the south has increased, most markets still have a shortage of specifications, coupled with a better rhythm to the library, the price of the medium board has a certain toughness, but the current lack of upward drive, is expected to be weak today.


Pipes: Prices held steady yesterday

Seamless pipe main stable decline, the price of the tube blank fell, approaching the Spring Festival, the market will reduce the price adjustment; The welded pipe is weak, the strip price falls, the bottom support is weak, the overall shipment volume is under pressure, and the pipe price is expected to be stable today.

Material trend analysis


Coke: Yesterday prices were weak and stable

 Under the pressure of steel mill loss, there is still a plan to seek profits from the upstream, the double coking market is not reduced, coke enterprises have limited production plans, supply is slightly tightened, and active shipments are mainly expected to maintain stable coke prices today.


Billet: Yesterday’s price stable operation

 Finished materials continue to be weak, there is still a third round of coke reduction expected at the cost end, and the upward drive is insufficient, but the average daily molten iron in steel mills has stopped falling and risen, the demand for raw material rigid replenishment has increased, and the billet price has support at the bottom, and it is expected that the billet price is weak and stable today.


Iron ore: Price volatility was weak yesterday

Downstream steel daily average hot metal trend changes, the iron ore needs to increase, but steel steel inventory consumption ratio is at a high level, indicating that steel steel raw material replenishment near the end, demand is still under pressure, ore prices are under pressure, expected today’s iron ore price shock weak.

Steel price forecast today

There are favorable policies in the macro side, but the strength is not expected, coupled with the expected reduction of interest rates, a number of economic data neutral and negative, the lack of upward macro drive, the third round of cost-end coke is expected to fall, the continuation of weak dual-focus, iron ore high fall, burden prices drag down the material, superposition is still in the traditional consumption off-season, steel prices are under pressure, the upward weakness, Prices are expected to hold steady and fall today.

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